Gold in the 1970s: A Decade of Unprecedented Performance

The 1970s marked a pivotal decade for gold, characterized by extreme volatility and exceptional gains. This period was defined by a series of economic events that dramatically influenced the global financial landscape. Here, we explore how gold performed during the 1970s and the official explanations for its behavior.

The End of the Bretton Woods System

The decade began with a critical shift in the global financial system: the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971. Established post-World War II, the Bretton Woods system had fixed exchange rates with the US dollar pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. However, due to mounting inflationary pressures and excessive US dollar printing to fund government spending (notably the Vietnam War), President Richard Nixon announced the suspension of the dollar’s convertibility into gold. This decision effectively ended the Bretton Woods system and led to the free-floating of currency exchange rates. The uncertainty and resultant instability in the forex markets drove investors towards gold as a safe haven asset.

Inflation and Economic Uncertainty

The 1970s were marked by high inflation, triggered by several factors including the oil crises of 1973 and 1979. The OPEC oil embargo led to skyrocketing oil prices and severe inflation across economies, severely eroding the purchasing power of fiat currencies. Gold, traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, saw increased demand. As consumer prices rose, so did the allure of gold as a store of value.

Investment Demand

With the collapse of the fixed currency exchange system and rising inflation, investors increasingly turned to gold. The decade also saw the legalization of gold ownership for US citizens in 1974, further boosting demand. Prior to this, gold ownership had been restricted to certificates and limited forms of bullion. The legislative change allowed private ownership of gold bars and coins, increasing the accessibility of gold to the general public and sparking a surge in investment demand.

Global Political Instability

The 1970s were rife with geopolitical tensions and conflicts, including the continuation of the Cold War, the Vietnam War, and various Middle Eastern conflicts following the oil crisis. Such events added to the economic uncertainty and boosted gold’s role as a crisis commodity.

Performance Recap

The cumulative effect of these factors was profound. Gold prices skyrocketed from $35 per ounce at the beginning of the decade to approximately $850 per ounce by January 1980. This represented an extraordinary gain, reflecting gold’s status as a safe haven during times of economic turmoil.

Conclusion

The 1970s established gold as a powerhouse investment, influenced by a complex interplay of economic policies, market dynamics, and geopolitical tensions. The decade not only underscored gold’s crucial role in the financial system as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation but also marked its resurgence as a key asset in investment portfolios worldwide.

This summary provides a concise overview of the major drivers behind gold’s performance in the 1970s, illustrating how it became a cornerstone asset for investors seeking stability in turbulent times.

Assessing Gold Performance in the December-January Period

Introduction:

Gold has long been considered a safe-haven asset, and its investment performance is closely scrutinized, especially during volatile periods. The months of December and January often bring about a unique set of circumstances that can impact the precious metal’s value. In this article, we will explore the historical performance of gold investments during the typical December-January period and analyze the factors that contribute to its fluctuations.

Historical Trends:

  1. Year-End Demand: Historically, the demand for gold tends to rise towards the end of the year. Investors often seek to diversify their portfolios and hedge against economic uncertainties, making gold an attractive option. This increased demand can contribute to upward pressure on prices.
  2. Festive Season and Jewelry Demand: The holiday season, particularly in December, sees a surge in consumer spending and, consequently, an uptick in the demand for gold jewelry. This spike in demand can influence the overall performance of gold during this period.
  3. Market Volatility: The transition from one calendar year to the next often brings about increased market volatility. Uncertainties related to economic data, geopolitical events, and global tensions can drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.
  4. Dollar Performance: The performance of the U.S. dollar can have a significant impact on gold prices. When the dollar weakens, gold becomes more attractive to investors as it is priced in dollars. Conversely, a stronger dollar may put downward pressure on gold prices.
  5. Interest Rates: Central bank policies and interest rate decisions also play a crucial role in determining gold prices. Generally, lower interest rates make non-interest-bearing assets like gold more appealing, while higher rates may have the opposite effect.

Case Studies:

Let’s delve into a few notable instances to highlight gold’s performance during December and January in recent years.

  1. 2019-2020: The end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 saw heightened global uncertainties, including trade tensions and geopolitical issues. During this period, gold prices experienced a significant rally as investors sought safety amid market turbulence.
  2. 2020-2021: The COVID-19 pandemic heavily influenced financial markets in 2020. Gold, acting as a safe-haven asset, witnessed robust demand during the peak of the crisis. As economies started recovering in 2021, gold prices faced some downward pressure.
  3. 2021-2022: The transition from 2021 to 2022 was marked by concerns about inflation, central bank policies, and ongoing pandemic-related challenges. Gold prices exhibited volatility, responding to changing economic conditions and global uncertainties.

Conclusion:

While historical trends suggest that gold tends to perform well during the December-January period, it’s essential for investors to consider a broader set of factors that can influence its value. Economic indicators, geopolitical events, and changes in market sentiment all contribute to the intricate dance of gold prices.

As with any investment, thorough research and a clear understanding of the global economic landscape are crucial. While gold may offer stability during times of uncertainty, prudent investors should diversify their portfolios and stay informed about the dynamic factors affecting the precious metal’s performance.

Jim Rogers, Investing Master on Gold

I asked recently what Jim Rogers, the author of such classics as The Investment Biker and Hot Commodities, had to say about Gold. And here it is.

Investing in gold, according to the legendary investor Jim Rogers, isn’t merely a financial move—it’s a testament to understanding the pulse of the global economy and the cyclical nature of markets.

“Gold isn’t just a shiny metal; it’s a beacon of economic insight,” Rogers might emphasize. His approach to gold investing is deeply rooted in history and a profound understanding of market dynamics.

Gold as a Store of Value

Rogers often views gold as a historical store of value, dating back centuries. “Gold has weathered the storms of civilizations,” he’d assert, pointing to its enduring status as a haven asset during times of geopolitical turmoil or economic uncertainty. In his eyes, owning gold isn’t just about profit; it’s a means of preserving wealth across generations.

The Dollar and Gold Relationship

One of Rogers’ fundamental tenets is the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold. He acknowledges that when the dollar weakens, gold tends to strengthen. “The dollar and gold dance an intricate tango,” he’d remark. For him, this correlation underscores the importance of gold as a hedge against currency devaluation.

The Role of Central Banks

Central banks’ actions significantly influence Rogers’ perspective on gold. He’s been vocal about their impact on the metal’s price through buying and selling, recognizing their position as major players in the gold market. “When central banks sneeze, gold catches a cold,” he might quip, underscoring how their policies can sway gold’s trajectory.

Mining Companies vs. Physical Gold

Rogers might advocate for holding physical gold over investing in gold mining companies. While acknowledging the potential profits in mining stocks during bullish cycles, he often highlights the risks associated with management decisions, operational challenges, and geopolitical uncertainties that impact mining companies. “When investing in miners, you’re not just betting on gold, you’re betting on management,” he’d caution.

A Contrarian View

Rogers’ contrarian nature might also surface in his views on gold. He might advocate for buying gold when sentiment is low and selling when exuberance prevails. “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets,” he might quip, emphasizing the importance of taking positions when others are fearful.

Long-Term Perspective

Jim Rogers is known for his long-term investment horizon, and his views on gold align with this philosophy. He might emphasize that gold isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme; rather, it’s a hedge against uncertainty over extended periods. “Think in decades, not days,” he’d advise, highlighting the importance of patience and resilience in gold investing.

Diversification and Gold

For Rogers, gold is a vital component of a diversified portfolio. He wouldn’t advocate going all-in on gold but rather incorporating it as part of a balanced investment strategy. “Diversification is essential in the investment jungle,” he’d opine, advocating for a mix of assets to mitigate risks.

Final Thoughts

In the world of investing, Jim Rogers’ approach to gold is a mosaic of historical perspective, macroeconomic understanding, and a contrarian’s eye for opportunity. To him, gold isn’t just a metal; it’s a reflection of human history, economic cycles, and a prudent safeguard against the unpredictability of financial markets. His words echo a timeless sentiment: “When in doubt, bet on gold.”

Jim is most reknowned for his 1970s Quantum fund management with George Soros and more lately, his move to Singapore. He seems to have a knack for knowing when to buy low and sell high and freely shares his insights via interviews and Books.

The Glittering Prospects of Investing in Gold and Silver Mining ETFs

In a world where financial markets sway like a pendulum, investors perennially seek sturdy and reliable assets to safeguard their wealth. Among the constellation of investment options, gold and silver have stood the test of time, revered for their intrinsic value and as a hedge against market volatility. While purchasing physical bullion has been a traditional avenue, an increasingly popular and diversified approach is investing in Gold and Silver Mining Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

Understanding Gold and Silver Mining ETFs

Gold and Silver Mining ETFs encapsulate a basket of companies involved in the exploration, extraction, and production of these precious metals. Investors gain exposure to multiple mining companies through a single investment vehicle, benefiting from the collective performance of the underlying companies within the ETF.

Advantages of Investing in Gold and Silver Mining ETFs

1. Diversification: These ETFs offer exposure to a diversified portfolio of mining companies, mitigating individual company risk. Fluctuations in any one company’s performance have a diluted impact on the overall investment.

2. Liquidity and Accessibility: Buying and selling ETF shares is relatively easy, offering liquidity compared to investing directly in individual mining companies. Investors can trade ETF shares on major exchanges during market hours.

3. Cost-Efficiency: Gold and Silver Mining ETFs generally have lower expenses compared to actively managed funds. They offer a cost-effective way to gain exposure to the precious metals sector.

4. Risk Mitigation: While individual mining companies can face operational, geopolitical, or financial risks, a diversified ETF spreads risk across multiple companies, potentially reducing the impact of adverse events on the investment.

Disadvantages to Consider

1. Volatility: Precious metal prices, and consequently mining ETFs, can be highly volatile. Fluctuations in commodity prices, global economic conditions, and currency movements can impact the fund’s performance.

2. Company-Specific Risks: Despite diversification, if a significant holding within the ETF faces operational issues or regulatory hurdles, it can affect the overall fund performance.

3. Tracking Error: Some ETFs might not perfectly track the performance of the underlying assets due to factors like fees, expenses, and the fund’s methodology.

Safety Aspects of Holding Shares in an ETF

The safety of holding shares in a Gold and Silver Mining ETF is contingent on various factors:

1. Regulatory Oversight: ETFs are regulated investment products, subject to oversight by financial authorities, ensuring a level of investor protection.

2. Asset Custody: ETFs typically employ reputable custodians to safeguard the underlying assets, reducing the risk of mismanagement or fraud.

3. Transparency: Most ETFs regularly disclose their holdings, allowing investors to monitor the composition of the fund and the performance of underlying assets.

4. Market Liquidity: The ability to easily buy and sell ETF shares on the open market provides a level of liquidity, allowing investors to exit positions without significant price impact.

In Conclusion

Investing in Gold and Silver Mining ETFs can offer an avenue for exposure to precious metals without the complexities of owning physical bullion or individual mining stocks. However, like any investment, it’s essential to weigh the advantages against the potential risks and consider personal investment goals and risk tolerance before diving in. While these ETFs can provide diversification and potential for returns, investors should conduct thorough research and consider consulting a financial advisor to make informed investment decisions in line with their financial objectives.

Remember, the glitter of gold and silver in the investment world often comes with its share of fluctuations, and a balanced, well-researched approach can help navigate the highs and lows of this intriguing market.

Precious Metals Surge: Unveiling the Dynamics Behind Silver and Gold Rally, and the Impending Rise of Platinum

Introduction:

In recent times, the world has witnessed a remarkable surge in the prices of precious metals, particularly silver and gold. Investors and enthusiasts alike have been closely monitoring the factors contributing to this rally. As we explore the reasons behind the ascent of silver and gold, we will also delve into the potential for platinum to follow suit, given the unique dynamics surrounding its production.

The Silver Lining:

Silver, often referred to as “the poor man’s gold,” has experienced a surge in demand for several reasons. One primary factor is its dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. The increasing demand for silver in the electronics and solar industries has created a substantial market for this versatile metal. Additionally, the low interest rate environment and inflation concerns have propelled investors to seek refuge in tangible assets like silver.

Gold Glitters Amidst Economic Uncertainty:

Similarly, gold has maintained its status as a safe-haven asset, drawing investors seeking stability during times of economic uncertainty. The ongoing global challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, have fueled the demand for gold as a store of value. Central banks’ continued monetary stimulus measures and the fear of inflation have further intensified gold’s appeal, driving its price to new heights.

Platinum’s Turn in the Spotlight:

Now, attention is shifting towards platinum as a potential beneficiary of the current market dynamics. Platinum is a crucial metal, widely used in the automotive industry, particularly in catalytic converters. The majority of the world’s platinum supply (over 70%) comes from South Africa and Russia. However, recent developments in South Africa, a major platinum producer, raise concerns about the metal’s future availability.

Power Struggles in South Africa:

South Africa, a key player in the global platinum market, faces challenges in its power supply infrastructure. The country’s electricity grid has been plagued by issues such as load shedding and an aging power infrastructure. Unreliable power supply not only disrupts mining operations but also affects the overall economic activity, potentially impacting platinum production.

Russia’s Role in Platinum Supply:

On the other hand, Russia, another significant contributor to the global platinum supply (around 10%), has maintained a relatively stable production environment. However, geopolitical uncertainties and international relations may impact future supplies. Investors are closely monitoring these geopolitical factors as they consider the potential impact on platinum prices.

Investor Outlook and Conclusion:

As silver and gold continue to shine amid economic uncertainties, platinum emerges as a compelling investment opportunity. The metal’s unique industrial applications, coupled with concerns over the reliability of power supply in South Africa, suggest a potential uptrend in platinum prices.

Investors are advised to stay vigilant and consider diversifying their portfolios to include precious metals like platinum. The evolving dynamics in South Africa and Russia, combined with the global economic landscape, could position platinum as the next metal to garner significant attention in the ever-changing world of commodities.

Handily enough, Bullionvault* also allows investment in Platinum. As does Revolut*.

Both businesses will remit a small portion of their fees to us, but this doesn’t affect the price for you and we do genuinely recommend them for good service and access to corners of the market often off-limits to smaller investors like us.

Gold, What is it Good for?

After a year of silence on here (14 months, actually..), let’s get with the times and let chatai have a go at explaining why you should invest in gold :-

Gold has several properties that make it useful for a variety of purposes:

  1. Jewelry: Gold is a popular choice for jewelry because it is malleable and ductile, meaning it can be easily shaped and formed into intricate designs.
  2. Investment: Gold has historically been used as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, making it a popular investment option.
  3. Electronics: Gold is an excellent conductor of electricity, making it a valuable component in electronic devices such as computers, cell phones, and televisions.
  4. Dentistry: Gold is also used in dentistry for its non-reactive nature and durability, making it a popular choice for fillings, crowns, and other dental work.
  5. Industrial Applications: Gold is also used in a variety of industrial applications, such as in the production of glass, electronics, and aerospace equipment.

Overall, gold is a versatile and valuable metal with a wide range of applications.”

Now, go and ask OpenAI the same question regarding paper money.

When Money Changes

Global financial systems tend to last around fifty years, before dying and being replaced by something new. Normally in both a mix of managed and big bang, if that makes sense. Certainly, this is what happened in the late 1960s, leading to the USA closing the Gold window in 1971 and ending the convertibility of US Dollars to Gold at the fixed price of $35 an ounce. What a significant year 1971 was, for personal reasons too.

How Ironic he interrupted Bonanza to make an announcement about gold…

1980 was also significant, being the year it took $850 to exchange for one ounce of Gold. Yes, a twenty-times increase in nine years, for purchasing something and hiding it under the floorboards for the whole time. Sounds great, doesn’t it? And so it probably was, for those in the know, who had the opportunity to prepare early before the masses panic and pile in.

So, knowing that global financial systems change approximately every fifty years, we should be able to work out another monetary switch took place in 1921. This one wasn’t so clear, but it most certainly did.

Prior to world war one, the world largely operated on a gold standard, where prices were relatively fixed, or even falling with productivity improvements and living standards were rising. La Belle Epoque, as the French called it. A high point of human civilisation, that must have seemed at the time as if it would go on forever. Many in 1914 declared war too impossible to take place, as the world had become so intertwined and living standards had risen so high, only fools would want to destroy such a perfect world. Well, with the benefits of hindsight, perhaps not fools, but most definitely those with darker intentions and few scruples about the natural universal laws.

Naturally, wars are expensive, both in human and financial capital. Governments issued new bonds and demanded patriotism of their citizens, both in sacrificing their lives and investing their funds in pathetic investments that over the long term were guaranteed to dilute their purchasing power. Interestingly, when I first followed financial markets in the 1980s, £100 war loan bonds were still trading in the UK, but with a terrible yield of perhaps, 3% and trading for around £40. Imagine what £100 could buy in 1940, versus what it could buy in 1990. As usual, the deal with government is a one-sided one and in this respect, nothing has changed for the better in one hundred years, but got markedly worse. By 1918, all sides were experiencing inflation (definition : increasing number of currency units chasing same quantity of goods) for the first time in generations and as the war ended, there was a chance that if the economies of the nations returned to anything like pre-war normal and soldiers spent the dormant earnings of the past years, inflation could’ve occurred massively. Also, there was a big question around gold no longer being able to back the number of currency units now in existence. Over the coming years, gold coins were quietly withdrawn from general circulation and replaced with pieces of paper promising the same thing, but now buying much, much less when it came to exchanges. The wisest members of the public surely kept a few gold sovereigns, if they had them, in the drawer for a rainy day. How interesting then, that a serious pandemic – Spanish Flu – came along for and semi-shut down these economies, causing large-scale unemployment and distortions for around two years.

Let’s compare it to now. In 2008, a great financial war began. One where if the natural laws were followed, the banks would’ve collapsed. Instead, they were put on life support at multi-trillion cost to the citizens of those countries affected. The war quietly continued for 11 years, with various actors and players of roles appearing to assuage and distract the public in the style of master magicians, watch what this hand is doing, don’t look at the other hand. It’s largely worked, unfortunately and people have been tricked, while the banks have recapitalised, made billions and are now perhaps good long-term investments for the next ten years, while they unscrupulously build large property portfolios of repossessed properties to be rented back to the dispossessed. In September 2019, the financial world creaked when interest rates on the repo market (short term overnight lending between businesses) spiked and everyone stopped lending to each other. All in one night. It’s very hard to find details on this, since the media completely failed to report it at the time, but the US Federal reserve began pumping billions nightly in to keep that market functioning, before Corona conveniently appeared and shutdown the world, just as Spanish flu did one hundred years ago.

I make no judgement on whether these pandemics are real or not. Only their mirrored effects in creating similar situations in the world. On this basis, they have been near-identical, so now for a prediction – Spanish flu, the mostly appalling misnamed illness of all time, considering the first case was reported in a Kansas military camp, began in 1918 and swept across the world in two years, dying out around 1920. From there, there was economic hardship and a stock market collapse during the period 1921-23, along with gigantic hyperinflation in Germany, which I covered in my book. After that, famously, the stock markets began a dramatic rise, peaking in 1929 and not finding their nadir until 1932. Perhaps the idea of a rhyming, roaring twenties is not yet done? Let’s imagine this scenario – Corona came in 2020 and perhaps Moronic Omicron is the one that dampens it down and things reopen after two years. Then economies readjust over the next few years with a destruction of money in the old system, before the new system is established. One thing is for sure, unless you are an insider, and I am clearly not, we need to retain our wits about us to survive and, just perhaps, prosper. Good luck!

As an aside, it fascinates me that the war ended on 11/11/18. An interesting date in itself. One that cleverly works worldwide, regardless of how you arrange the days and months, a bit like 6/6/44, or 7/7/05 – feel free to look those up if you are requiring historical insight. Few know that the war began on 111118 too. Oh wait no, I hear you say, it began in August 1914, when Archduke Ferdinand was amateurly assasinated by Gavrilov Princip in Belgrade, an assassination attempt so botched the driver had to help it happen. No, it began on 111118, as that was the number plate of the car the Archduke was on. 118 and gematria, you really can’t make this stuff up. Wake up and see the signs.

Evergreen

Evergiven, Evergreen, Evergrande. Are you spotting a trend yet?

Let’s take a look at a few notable media stories of 2021. A ship blocks the Suez canal and massively disrupts global trade. A truck blocks a Chinese motorway. A supposedly closed down CIA front company that even Wikipedia states was used to transport top secret cargoes around the world re-emerges again and in this moment, a Chinese property company experiences financial difficulties. Few things in life are coincidences, less so when it comes to word games and numbers. Think of life as a series of subtle and direct attempts to hijack your mind, simultaneously trying to both modify your perceptions of the past and prepare you for a future you might otherwise not accept.

For a real insight into what may be going on here, let’s travel back in time to 1907 and take a look at the curiously-named Knickerbocker Trust. Back then, a new economic superpower was on the rise, one unaware of it’s strength, but already flexing muscles in Cuba and the Philippines. It’s people free, economically productive and quite probably proud of their achievements since independence from the current world superpower almost 130 years ago. Best of all, this country had no central bank, no income taxes and transacted using sound money – gold and silver. In a short space of time, the Knickerbocker trust went bust, dragging many banks and depositors down with it. Visualise the Mary Poppins Bank run and you perhaps get some idea how it probably was for many, but with no happy ending. Official story says financier James Pierpont Morgan came along, rallied the political and financial forces of the time and saved the day. This 1907 crash was heavily used as evidence of the need for a US central bank to manage a sound currency and provide a backstop against future failures. It only took six years and lo and behold, with a top secret clandestine meeting on Jeckyll Island, the federal reserve bank was formed. On those original simple metrics, you may wonder if it has succeeded much since but it’s certainly made a select few very rich.

Hop in the time machine to 2021 and there’s a new economic superpower on the up, one that after a period in isolation is growing, trading and allowing it’s citizens the freedom to accumulate wealth. Meanwhile, this nation accumulates gold and silver reserves, perhaps in preparation for a new currency based on sound money principles. What odds then, that someone, somewhere fancies undermining them and taking a cut for themselves? what better way to do it than a financial mishap, one that loses a lot of people a lot of money and sharpens the mind, as if it was a pencil, ready for drawing in their version of a new financial era instead?

Just as then, back in the 1900s, there’s no doubt a major war is not just brewing, but actively occurring. For now it’s done with financial and cyber terrorism, by dark forces that are perhaps not the ones you are led to believe they are. Deals done in darkened boardrooms or even via secure messaging software, by entities that have, quite possibly, never met in the physical world and never will. Entities that often share different or even opposing aims, but are content to ally with their opponents to achieve shorter term mutually beneficial outcomes. Who can make sense of it all? All we can probably know is that at some point this quiet, almost phoney, war will boil over into physical conflict of some type and scale, quite probably unlike the way prior wars have been fought. Don’t forget it only took 7 years from 1907 for a colossal conflict to begin.

As an aside, let’s not forget Matt Groening and his creation, The Simpsons. Do you remember the address of the Simpson’s? 742 Evergreen Terrace. Even now, as the memory whirrs, remember this song from the 1970’s? Yes, Evergreen has been exactly that, with us all year and every year.

The New World Financial Centre

The British Empire and Sir Stanford Raffles in particular were a very shrewd lot. They identified a seemingly irrelevant island with a population of about 150 people as a piece of prime real estate back in 1817. What’s happened since is well-known of course, as the city of Singapore has developed into a major international trade and financial hub, with all the wealth and status that goes alongside that.

This place had always been on my to do list, so when a work trip in 2018 presented me with the opportunity for a one day stopover, I took it with both hands. While I didn’t actually sit down for a Singapore Sling, I did take a wander around the Raffles hotel complex and see the art deco railway station, where bullet damage from the 1941 Japanese invasion was still visible in some of the outer walls, before it probably disappears as the city modernises even further and obliterates the British symbols. The railway itself has already been moved to the North of the island and the future of the station seemed uncertain then, but ghosts were visible everywhere, as I peered through the locked gate into the past, surrounded by modern skyscrapers. I also saw the 1920s post office building, now a hotel, the main square in front of the Town hall where hundreds of thousands were executed by the Japanese and one of the world’s most expensive pieces of undeveloped real estate, The Singapore Cricket Club. I can only wonder how much longer that last piece of Imperial history will last. The battle of Singapore itself in 1941 has always fascinated me. For obvious reasons, it does not feature large in British history when World War 2 is mentioned, but will probably forever be Britain’s biggest military defeat, with a loss of 100,000 military personnel into Japanese captivity and subsequent death, along with the loss of two Battleships – The Prince of Wales and The Repulse.

I’d love to revisit some day on less of an intense schedule, but I sense my days of travel are numbered and I’ve used most of those numbers up. No matter, at least I can say I saw some of the world before all prison doors were locked with a resounding thud.

At the time, I was not ignorant of the island’s position as a major trade route and centre of wealth. Goldmoney and Bullionvault have offered Singapore as a precious metals storage location for years. However, it’s only when you are actually there on the ground, staring up at the impressive skyscrapers that you really understand how the wealth and energy is migrating from the old world to the new.

It’s interesting how stories coincide once more and get you thinking on a particular route. A few weeks ago, I expressed the view that Bitcoin is a distraction, or a preparation for a release of a new monetary system to replace the Petrodollar that has existed since 1971, the year of my birth, the introduction of decimalisation to the UK, the closing of the Gold Convertibility window in the USA and the official founding of the World Economic Forum – more on the last one later. In my view, the coming of digital currencies is inevitable and they may not be nice, with features such as time limitation (spend it or lose it) and extra credits available only to those who follow the rules of society (get the jab or don’t eat meat?). However, for them to be truly accepted, they will need to engineer a collapse of the current system and when that system collapses, every monetary system change ever has had to promise some kind of gold backing to get the public onside.

Historically, the old world still rules the precious metals world, with familiar locations like New York, London and Switzerland being where most of that trade is transacted. As the old world declines further and the new world rises, an Asian powerhouse, one with independence, strong defences, good shipping links and a robust financial system to trade gold and silver is required. There’s no doubt on these metrics that Singapore ticks all the boxes.

What really triggered it was a story mentioning the huge new precious metals facilities being developed in Singapore. It’s not the first time media, including the BBC, have reported on this. Yes, it looks possible a new world currency backed by gold/silver is coming and it will all be stored in Singapore, perhaps with an offshoot for Europe in London. On this, Brexit suddenly makes more sense – a European nation outside EU control, a defendable island where the wealth can be stored as the mainland descends into destruction. The Corporation of London certainly has a pedigree line of survival and growth, regardless of the general situation in the country. You may laugh, but despite a recent short period of comparative peace, Europe has a long, long history of huge wars for resources and after a year of rewarding people for doing nothing, while the continent becomes ever-more dependent on a few producers to carry the mass on their shoulders cracks may appear and Atlas may yet shrug.

When you think about it, it’s interesting how Switzerland always managed to remain neutral during the many European wars of the last few centuries. It becomes clearer why when you are aware of the high levels of banking secrecy Switzerland has historically maintained regarding account holders and fund sources. Consider also how much plundered loot found its way to Switzerland during World War 2. Why, the World Economic Forum itself is even based in Switzerland and Klaus Schwab, it’s apparent founder, was born in Germany in 1938, just before World War 2 began. I’d be interested to learn more on his family history, and this article is something of a primer. Having conducted their meetings in Davos, Switzerland for the entire history of the organisation, they are now holding their first-ever meeting in Singapore in August, 2021.

On closer examination of the Asian map, Singapore is crucial to all trade heading from China, Japan and Korea etc to India then onwards to Europe. Ships can only sail through one narrow strait. The Evergreen in the Suez canal feels like the first visible supply disruption which will expose Europe to how reliant it has become on foreign imports of essentials. Perhaps when those containers do finally arrive, they will be loaded up with precious metals for the return trip as Europe is stripped bare?

Meanwhile, almost everyone in Europe wanders around like idiots, wearing masks and continuing to following “official advice”, not laws on all kinds of things that really are basic human rights, like seeing family and friends, or conducting mutally beneficial transactions with other human beings. Blithely unaware of the probable imminent end of their way of life. You know, that “way of life” that you have been told terrorists hated so much that it needed to be protected, yet was immediately signed away the moment you got told a new virus with a 99.6% survival rate hit?

What do I know really? If I was better at these things I wouldn’t be working in an office following the limitations of my school programming, but on the basis of these jigsaw pieces slotting together, perhaps we should be investing in Singapore. Especially banks if it is going to be the new Switzerland after the World Economic Forum meeting. Not to say there won’t be bumps along the way – one other thing about that map is the seeming inevitability of a conflict between the old world powers and the new. That same Asian map shows how China is totally hemmed in from the sea because the USA controls Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines. If China could punch through and take Taiwan or part of the Phillipines, they could control the Pacific. A war is brewing. I note, for example, that the UK recently sent their aircraft carrier to the China sea. A war in which Singapore will remain an agreed neutral by all parties, just like Switzerland did during the last century, but a war in which the destruction and rewards to the victors may well be huge and end up on this small island nation.

Stock Markets and Gold

Now for more news, your stock market investments may be worth under one-third of their value in 2000.  Gasp.  Yes, the gain of the last 20 years has been illusory.  For sure, some countries and some market sectors have done better than others, but for the USA main index, this is exactly what has happened.

(Chart: DJIA priced in ounces of gold)

Even if large corporations prosper, the US DJIA stock index and gold have a history of a near meeting when a financial crisis bottoms out. Currently, the DJIA is worth around 14 times the price of an ounce of gold. In 1932 and 1980, just over one ounce of gold bought the DJIA. Whether a large stock market crash achieves that, as was the case in 1932, or inflation pushing up the gold price, as was the case in 1980, it may be destined to happen again.