The Rise and Fall of Empires – Gold, Silver and Freedom

July 22, 2024September 13, 2024

BEMO Up, Scotty!

Stepping slightly outside of the world of precious metals, and yet this here allows investment in countries that are some of the world’s biggest producers of Gold, Silver and Platinum, I’d now like to introduce you to Barings Emerging Europe, Middle east and Africa.

This trust has suffered majorly since early 2022, but having a large proportion of it’s holdings in Russia (about one-third at that time), but credit where credit is due, the managers cleverly rebranded the fund from it’s Eastern European remit in 2021, switching a large proportion of the portfolio from Russia and Eastern Europe to Saudia Arabia, United Arab Emirates and South Africa. All current and future BRICS members, with huge potential for future growth, also due to their relatively young populations, access to natural resources and economic links outside of the West.

Right now, the portfolio seems to be split between Saudi Arabia and the UAE (about 40%), South Africa (about 25%), then a whole host of Eastern European countries and Turkey making up the remainder. The trust is also on an 18% discount at time of writing. But wait, what about Russia, where did that portfolio go? Actually, it’s still there and still held and best of all, they occasionally get to sell out and remit the proceeds back (what happened to those super strict sanctions, the ones that for some reason didn’t even include natural gas?). Furthermore, that Russian portion of the portfolio is officially valued at ZERO, as far as I can tell. Yes, exposure to companies like Lukoil, Gazprom and Sberbank is probably still in there somewhere at an official value of zero, despite those companies still generating big profits. By my approximation, if the russian assets were still valued at their pre-2021 value, it boosts the NAV (Net asset Value) to about 850p a share and puts the trust on a 50% discount.

This valuation, of course, says nothing about the dividends that have been received since 2021, nor does it take account of the Ruble performance and Russia’s increased GDP since 2021, so who knows what it’s really worth? Then, we need to consider that officially the Russian portion of the portfolio is valued at zero because it’s unsaleable. Rightly or wrongly, there are no buyers, so you are stuck with it until something happens. However, look at history and at some point peace happens and world economic parity is restored. Especially given Russia’s immense resources, this will happen at some point.

As background, look further at the commodity producing potential of these countries. Russia and South Africa dominate 70% of the world Platinum market, both are big Gold producers and the middle east is a gigantic oil-producing part of the world. Even Poland is a top-10 world Silver producer (who even knew, eh?).

Essentially, to me, this trust represents good value and already looks bombed out, although even if something is cheap it can always get cheaper, even if the long-term trajectory goes upwards. Please do your own research before making any investment decisions. Let’s see if 2025 proves me right.

December 12, 2023December 13, 2023

Jim Rogers, Investing Master on Gold

I asked recently what Jim Rogers, the author of such classics as The Investment Biker and Hot Commodities, had to say about Gold. And here it is.

Investing in gold, according to the legendary investor Jim Rogers, isn’t merely a financial move—it’s a testament to understanding the pulse of the global economy and the cyclical nature of markets.

“Gold isn’t just a shiny metal; it’s a beacon of economic insight,” Rogers might emphasize. His approach to gold investing is deeply rooted in history and a profound understanding of market dynamics.

Gold as a Store of Value

Rogers often views gold as a historical store of value, dating back centuries. “Gold has weathered the storms of civilizations,” he’d assert, pointing to its enduring status as a haven asset during times of geopolitical turmoil or economic uncertainty. In his eyes, owning gold isn’t just about profit; it’s a means of preserving wealth across generations.

The Dollar and Gold Relationship

One of Rogers’ fundamental tenets is the inverse relationship between the US dollar and gold. He acknowledges that when the dollar weakens, gold tends to strengthen. “The dollar and gold dance an intricate tango,” he’d remark. For him, this correlation underscores the importance of gold as a hedge against currency devaluation.

The Role of Central Banks

Central banks’ actions significantly influence Rogers’ perspective on gold. He’s been vocal about their impact on the metal’s price through buying and selling, recognizing their position as major players in the gold market. “When central banks sneeze, gold catches a cold,” he might quip, underscoring how their policies can sway gold’s trajectory.

Mining Companies vs. Physical Gold

Rogers might advocate for holding physical gold over investing in gold mining companies. While acknowledging the potential profits in mining stocks during bullish cycles, he often highlights the risks associated with management decisions, operational challenges, and geopolitical uncertainties that impact mining companies. “When investing in miners, you’re not just betting on gold, you’re betting on management,” he’d caution.

A Contrarian View

Rogers’ contrarian nature might also surface in his views on gold. He might advocate for buying gold when sentiment is low and selling when exuberance prevails. “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets,” he might quip, emphasizing the importance of taking positions when others are fearful.

Long-Term Perspective

Jim Rogers is known for his long-term investment horizon, and his views on gold align with this philosophy. He might emphasize that gold isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme; rather, it’s a hedge against uncertainty over extended periods. “Think in decades, not days,” he’d advise, highlighting the importance of patience and resilience in gold investing.

Diversification and Gold

For Rogers, gold is a vital component of a diversified portfolio. He wouldn’t advocate going all-in on gold but rather incorporating it as part of a balanced investment strategy. “Diversification is essential in the investment jungle,” he’d opine, advocating for a mix of assets to mitigate risks.

Final Thoughts

In the world of investing, Jim Rogers’ approach to gold is a mosaic of historical perspective, macroeconomic understanding, and a contrarian’s eye for opportunity. To him, gold isn’t just a metal; it’s a reflection of human history, economic cycles, and a prudent safeguard against the unpredictability of financial markets. His words echo a timeless sentiment: “When in doubt, bet on gold.”

Jim is most reknowned for his 1970s Quantum fund management with George Soros and more lately, his move to Singapore. He seems to have a knack for knowing when to buy low and sell high and freely shares his insights via interviews and Books.

December 12, 2023

The Glittering Prospects of Investing in Gold and Silver Mining ETFs

In a world where financial markets sway like a pendulum, investors perennially seek sturdy and reliable assets to safeguard their wealth. Among the constellation of investment options, gold and silver have stood the test of time, revered for their intrinsic value and as a hedge against market volatility. While purchasing physical bullion has been a traditional avenue, an increasingly popular and diversified approach is investing in Gold and Silver Mining Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).

Understanding Gold and Silver Mining ETFs

Gold and Silver Mining ETFs encapsulate a basket of companies involved in the exploration, extraction, and production of these precious metals. Investors gain exposure to multiple mining companies through a single investment vehicle, benefiting from the collective performance of the underlying companies within the ETF.

Advantages of Investing in Gold and Silver Mining ETFs

1. Diversification: These ETFs offer exposure to a diversified portfolio of mining companies, mitigating individual company risk. Fluctuations in any one company’s performance have a diluted impact on the overall investment.

2. Liquidity and Accessibility: Buying and selling ETF shares is relatively easy, offering liquidity compared to investing directly in individual mining companies. Investors can trade ETF shares on major exchanges during market hours.

3. Cost-Efficiency: Gold and Silver Mining ETFs generally have lower expenses compared to actively managed funds. They offer a cost-effective way to gain exposure to the precious metals sector.

4. Risk Mitigation: While individual mining companies can face operational, geopolitical, or financial risks, a diversified ETF spreads risk across multiple companies, potentially reducing the impact of adverse events on the investment.

Disadvantages to Consider

1. Volatility: Precious metal prices, and consequently mining ETFs, can be highly volatile. Fluctuations in commodity prices, global economic conditions, and currency movements can impact the fund’s performance.

2. Company-Specific Risks: Despite diversification, if a significant holding within the ETF faces operational issues or regulatory hurdles, it can affect the overall fund performance.

3. Tracking Error: Some ETFs might not perfectly track the performance of the underlying assets due to factors like fees, expenses, and the fund’s methodology.

Safety Aspects of Holding Shares in an ETF

The safety of holding shares in a Gold and Silver Mining ETF is contingent on various factors:

1. Regulatory Oversight: ETFs are regulated investment products, subject to oversight by financial authorities, ensuring a level of investor protection.

2. Asset Custody: ETFs typically employ reputable custodians to safeguard the underlying assets, reducing the risk of mismanagement or fraud.

3. Transparency: Most ETFs regularly disclose their holdings, allowing investors to monitor the composition of the fund and the performance of underlying assets.

4. Market Liquidity: The ability to easily buy and sell ETF shares on the open market provides a level of liquidity, allowing investors to exit positions without significant price impact.

In Conclusion

Investing in Gold and Silver Mining ETFs can offer an avenue for exposure to precious metals without the complexities of owning physical bullion or individual mining stocks. However, like any investment, it’s essential to weigh the advantages against the potential risks and consider personal investment goals and risk tolerance before diving in. While these ETFs can provide diversification and potential for returns, investors should conduct thorough research and consider consulting a financial advisor to make informed investment decisions in line with their financial objectives.

Remember, the glitter of gold and silver in the investment world often comes with its share of fluctuations, and a balanced, well-researched approach can help navigate the highs and lows of this intriguing market.

January 27, 2022October 9, 2022

War, What is it Good For?

Absolutely nothing. If you believe the song by Edwin Starr, anyway. I disagree. Eisenhower warned in the 1950s about the military industrial complex in the USA and sadly, time has proved him right, with a gigantic industry going on that relies on conflicts occurring in faraway places. All under the modern excuses of protecting democracy, while, it may be noted, most of the action seems to occur in resource-rich countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, but countries like Zimbabwe are left to collapse.

Take for example, the latest situation in Ukraine. When it comes down to it, it’s a conflict based on what media tells us is happening. Unless we actually have our own feet on the ground, or know someone there who can tell us better, then it may as well all be lies, exactly the same as Orson Welles and his radio dramatisation of War of the Worlds in 1938, that had Americans packing their bags and fleeing for the hills. However that might have saved them is unclear, but I’m wishing I knew someone in Ukraine or Russia border regions who could tell me what the fear level really is.

Initially, stock markets responded by marking down Russian shares, and they have declined markedly, by about 30% since October last year, suggesting the insiders were in the know, as per usual. The USA continued to rise until a couple of weeks ago, since when it has fallen markedly too, along with EU markets. It’s interesting that the UK has not joined in the falls, and it could be that a market containing lots of resource, oil and financial stocks may be resilient in the coming years. Last couple days though, things have changed, with marked rises in Russian stocks especially, but the US beginning to curve upwards again too. The conclusion must be that the insiders know World War 3 isn’t happening quite yet and just perhaps the USA has had a little bit of a bloody nose from a playground scrap against a more established player. In fact, the USA has quietly slunk away, defeated from a few scraps in recent years. They tried to start a coup in Venezuela, the world’s richest nation in oil reserves and failed, suggesting the decline of this cycle of their power is well and truly underway.

So, what do we learn from all this? Wars happen and mostly they are engineered by someone looking to profit in some way. It wouldn’t surprise me if Ukraine agrees a major arms deal with the USA in coming months, to help defend against the Russian “threat” and the military industrial complex continues to profit from human misery and fear. As an outsider, with no hope of knowing when the next conflict incident is planned, My reading of this is : buy Russia, they really have it all, the resources and tons of under-used agricultural land that once supplied the world and just perhaps, buy the UK. People are still convinced Brexit was a bad idea, but the performance of UK stocks and funds suggests they have missed out on ten years of very good rises. Perhaps they missed that Royal Dutch Shell decided the EU is such a bad place to be, they dropped the Dutch after over 100 years and moved their head office to the UK in December 2021. It goes back to thinking before that resource stocks and banks may well be the right places to be for the next ten years. I am in no way saying that it’s going to be a great ten years for people living in the UK. “We are on a train journey, and some of the people on the train at the beginning are not going to be there at the end”, as I was once told by my employer during a meeting where mass redundancy was clearly planned. With coming rises in food prices, living in a country that must import over half it’s food and can easily be blockaded by uncooperative neighbours might not be a picnic. However, resource companies with their HQ there, but most of the earnings coming from elsewhere in the world, may well be a great place to be for your hard-earned savings. Along with…choke…big pharma. Reminds me of another war going on right under our noses that few are even aware of, the war on humanity itself.

September 28, 2021October 9, 2022

Evergreen

Evergiven, Evergreen, Evergrande. Are you spotting a trend yet?

Let’s take a look at a few notable media stories of 2021. A ship blocks the Suez canal and massively disrupts global trade. A truck blocks a Chinese motorway. A supposedly closed down CIA front company that even Wikipedia states was used to transport top secret cargoes around the world re-emerges again and in this moment, a Chinese property company experiences financial difficulties. Few things in life are coincidences, less so when it comes to word games and numbers. Think of life as a series of subtle and direct attempts to hijack your mind, simultaneously trying to both modify your perceptions of the past and prepare you for a future you might otherwise not accept.

For a real insight into what may be going on here, let’s travel back in time to 1907 and take a look at the curiously-named Knickerbocker Trust. Back then, a new economic superpower was on the rise, one unaware of it’s strength, but already flexing muscles in Cuba and the Philippines. It’s people free, economically productive and quite probably proud of their achievements since independence from the current world superpower almost 130 years ago. Best of all, this country had no central bank, no income taxes and transacted using sound money – gold and silver. In a short space of time, the Knickerbocker trust went bust, dragging many banks and depositors down with it. Visualise the Mary Poppins Bank run and you perhaps get some idea how it probably was for many, but with no happy ending. Official story says financier James Pierpont Morgan came along, rallied the political and financial forces of the time and saved the day. This 1907 crash was heavily used as evidence of the need for a US central bank to manage a sound currency and provide a backstop against future failures. It only took six years and lo and behold, with a top secret clandestine meeting on Jeckyll Island, the federal reserve bank was formed. On those original simple metrics, you may wonder if it has succeeded much since but it’s certainly made a select few very rich.

Hop in the time machine to 2021 and there’s a new economic superpower on the up, one that after a period in isolation is growing, trading and allowing it’s citizens the freedom to accumulate wealth. Meanwhile, this nation accumulates gold and silver reserves, perhaps in preparation for a new currency based on sound money principles. What odds then, that someone, somewhere fancies undermining them and taking a cut for themselves? what better way to do it than a financial mishap, one that loses a lot of people a lot of money and sharpens the mind, as if it was a pencil, ready for drawing in their version of a new financial era instead?

Just as then, back in the 1900s, there’s no doubt a major war is not just brewing, but actively occurring. For now it’s done with financial and cyber terrorism, by dark forces that are perhaps not the ones you are led to believe they are. Deals done in darkened boardrooms or even via secure messaging software, by entities that have, quite possibly, never met in the physical world and never will. Entities that often share different or even opposing aims, but are content to ally with their opponents to achieve shorter term mutually beneficial outcomes. Who can make sense of it all? All we can probably know is that at some point this quiet, almost phoney, war will boil over into physical conflict of some type and scale, quite probably unlike the way prior wars have been fought. Don’t forget it only took 7 years from 1907 for a colossal conflict to begin.

As an aside, let’s not forget Matt Groening and his creation, The Simpsons. Do you remember the address of the Simpson’s? 742 Evergreen Terrace. Even now, as the memory whirrs, remember this song from the 1970’s? Yes, Evergreen has been exactly that, with us all year and every year.

July 21, 2021October 9, 2022

Happy 50th Birthday

We are shortly coming up to a major event in history. A fiftieth birthday party. No, not mine, which was back in April, but the current world petrodollar system will celebrate fifty years of life on 15th August.

I doubt there’ll be fireworks, unless of course the USA chooses it as a day to invade someone, or Israel fires off a few more rockets into Palestine. After all, it’s not really something the powers that shouldn’t be even want you to know about, so any celebrations will likely be behind closed boardroom and palace doors, unseen. For of course, to some, it is a day of celebration – the theft or wealth transfer from millions of citizens trustingly placing their savings in the bank, little realising their money was now back completely by air and the full faith and trust of their government. For what that’s worth.

The other reason not to openly celebrate is that, well, behind the facade the world financial system is splintering and no-one can possibly construct the full jigsaw from all the pieces. Hidden as they are amongst the latest Covidian cult propaganda messages. You most certainly won’t get to hear most of this on the News at 10 on the BBC. Here’s some of the most recent snippets I have been able to glean – and I am sure there are many, many more.

The European Union is introducing a new payments system SEPA. It’s been around for some years but I only recently got offered it by a financial institution for the first time the other day. Sounds like a future competitor to the hegemony enjoyed by the USA with SWIFT system and yes, I checked and the UK is on the list of participating nations. Suggesting once more that true Brexit never happened despite the promises and the numerous handbags-at-dawn type of tired news stories we are often subjected to. At the very least, it seems the Corporation of London, experts in perennial survivalism, is hedging it’s bets.
Some central and South American nations, such as El Salvador and Guatemala announced that Bitcoin would become legal tender.
India just announced that no new Mastercards could be issued in the country. Pretty momentous for a country which has a growing middle class and large IT sector.
Indonesia has said that another cryptocurrency – Kinesis would be accepted as legal tender. This really catches my eye, as Kinesis claims to be backed by physical Gold and Silver. Something I wrote many years ago could be the thing to encourage acceptance and trust of a new currency. Is it really finally coming?
Meanwhile, mainstream media plants occasional stories on how the Federal Reserve and Bank of England are thinking about their own Central Bank Digital currencies (CBCDs). Yeah right, I’m sure that the planning and systems are much, much more advanced than that, while their promises that it would exist “alongside” the current system rings hollow. Think of Corona Health Passports – given the complexity of I.T. systems design and development, it’s ridiculous to believe that the systems were not developed long ago, to be ready for the coming crisis. Classic Problem, Reaction, Solution.
Then there’s China, who are planning their own CBCD with a reach right along the new Silk Road, while simultaneously building up huge Gold and Silver reserves, by buying all precious metals mined in China, rather than seeing it exported. Indeed, it is illegal to export gold and silver from China right now. Rumour has it that this CBCD may go public at the Winter Olympics in 2022.

So what do you do? Right now it’s hard to see the winners and losers, but my guess is that Gold wins again, as it always has in known history. So, for better or worse, perhaps it’s time to put a small amount into Kinesis (Sounds a bit like Kina, doesn’t it?), while also digging a hole in the garden to conceal a few final reserve coins. If it all goes wrong then at least you may puzzle the archaeologists who find your stash a thousand years from now.

June 24, 2021October 9, 2022

Water

One subject I omitted coverage of in the book to a great extent is the title of this post, Water. The essential of human life, for we could go a while without food and just maybe, nibble on some leaves, but we could not go without water for very long. Even humans in the state of hubris mentioned in the previous post know water is essential. The French, with their rich language and cultural Celtic history that’s still under there somewhere, awaiting a revival, even refer to it as L’Eau, quite literally, the life.

Yet, it is clearly taken for granted right now.

We shouldn’t be surprised. It’s there, quite literally, on tap for most of us whenever we need it and need it we do, for our daily showers, pots of tea/coffee and even chucking 1,000 litres of the stuff into a pool in the garden for the summer. What traditionally happens in markets is that as abundant commodities get cheaper, their abundance becomes relied upon and factored into modern life with increasing usage and reliance. It’s much the same with oil, where it’s used for heating, transport, packaging and even pharmaceuticals, among many things. Even corn, is apparently so abundant that the excess can be used to make Ethanol for adding to petrol, in an effort to appear “green”. I have no idea what’s green really about producing a foodstuff with artificial fertilisers, often produced from Natural Gas, then expending energy to convert that foodstuff into a fuel that can be added into petrol, but no matter, apparently this is somehow good for the planet. To the extent that the UK is about to introduce a new fuel with a higher percentage of Ethanol that may even damage car engines. It’s for the good of the environment though, right?

On this environmental note, did you know that manufacturing one car consumes a water footprint of approximately 500,000 litres of clean water? Think about that the next time that you’re told your water consumption is responsible for the destruction of the planet. Next, refer to the relatively recent James Bond film, A Quantum of Solace, in which water was the commodity targeted by the bad guys in order to take control of the world. Quantum, interesting word choice for another post on another day…Now you’ve done that, and realised that perhaps yet again the goldfish bowl entertainment presented to you years before is predictive programming, it may be time to think about potential water shortages. After all, little could re-engineer society quicker than a world where water was a resource to be fought over.

Which leads me onto recent press.

In a variety of locations, reservoirs are being drained. Official reasons given include cleaning, or simply to top up river levels. That’s certainly the reason given for the emptying of Tunstall reservoir, near the place of my birth in Northern England :-

To the locals, that one doesn’t make any sense. The river in question, The Wear, has not been short of water lately and in fact overflowed a short while ago. It got me thinking, where else in the world this may be happening and a few internet searches helped confirm this is not an isolated phenomenon.

California, for example. Farmers here are mystified, since some of them will be unable to grow their planned crops this year at all because of this.

Colorado is also indulging in the same activities.

In Northern Italy, the story is presented as the exciting uncovering of a lost village.

In London, canals are drained as a clean-up operation. Might be a valid reason, or may not.

So, enjoy your water while you can. Nothing could displace the existing way of life quicker than to leave people without drinking water. Food -well yes, but you can survive a few days. Water – it all falls apart quickly. If it was possible to wager on how this goes, I’d put my money on that it’ll be water shortages caused by a dry summer, which was of course caused by….(dramatic pause)…Global Warming! Then it’s only one small step further to an extreme solution of locking people down into their homes and enforcing rationed usage of key resources. Perhaps even the curtailment of meat (those pesky cows and their methane are destroying our planet, of course), alongside water, electricity and even the stopping of retailing certain items in shops and online. Forcing people to stay in their homes would once have been seen as untenable, but after the flock has accepted it for the past year, they are very likely to do as they are told again. It’s for the good of the planet, right? I’d even take this a step further and say that the surveillance society now has the technology to actually monitor that you are sticking to the enforced climate lockdown, something that they have been lacking since The Crown implementation of 2020. Magnetised beings and a 5g network feels like something with great tracking potential, if you’re into that. Perhaps the Eriksen experiment was a public test run.

If this sounds like the life you want, then great. I don’t, but we’re both on this planet, trapped in what feels like a dystopian video game. Good luck with your quest, only the bad news is that this is not actually a video game, where, if it goes badly you can just press reset and start again. No, this is it and the choices we make now may be the difference between life and death.

June 20, 2021October 9, 2022

Lydia

I sense a wave of emotion throughout the world. A fear of death on the personal level, mixed with a perverse almost universal belief that somehow the world as it is now is permanent, the much superior version of everything that ever went before. A world that is destined to last forever.

It really isn’t worth even trying to argue with people who feel that way. As individual humans, we should accept death as the end of birth, as opposed to stagnation. I’m pretty sure Queen even did a song on this universal question of “Who Wants to Live Forever”. Yet, people right now are in a state of paralysis about death and have convinced themselves, with the help of mainstream media, that living forever is a desirable state of affairs and more so, that it is somehow attainable. More on the uploading of the contents of the human mind to digital media another day, perhaps, but clearly these people never absorbed true message of the film Death Becomes Her, which now reads like a foreboding warning of what happens when you sell your soul, as opposed to the clever comedy it seemed back in 1992. Meanwhile, it helps increase the pathos when their 80-year-old relative, confined to a wheelchair and suffering from all kinds of ailments, gets taken away by the dreaded Covid Lurgy…or so the doctor put on the death certificate, anyway. So young, taken away before their time. How many times have you heard or read those words this past year? I’d put that along with died after a sudden illness as one of the most popular phrases of 2021, behind you’re on mute and other such online meeting frivolities.

On the universal level, meanwhile, everyone is convinced that the way of life we have arisen to now is somehow better and superior in every way to that which went before and that we can somehow beat the celestial forces, good and bad, that have bound us for millenia.

We can’t.

I wonder how the Lydians felt a few thousand years ago, as they wandered around their cities and provinces, gazing upon their achievements of civilisation, which included the first ever recorded coinage – cast in gold and silver, of course, and the first ever known fixed shops anywhere in the world, ever. Life must’ve seemed wonderful, an achievement of civilisation that could never end. Yet, let’s just take a look at Lydia now…

I’ve wandered around quite a few of these ancient Mediterranean sites, once teeming cities and towns, of sizes comparable or greater than what we live in today. It’s a sight to behold and yet few historians ever ask the real question – how did it happen? Another example of how history is written by the victors, since it seems a valid assumption that the people living through the apocalyptii (okay the real plural is apocalypses, but it feels real) never found the time to put pen to paper, chisel to stone or ink to papyrii to record these happenings. Too busy fighting over the scraps for their survival. It’s another small step to then think that none of those people could ever have imagined that some day their cities would become this, yet they do and it can happen in record time.

I am reminded of the Greek word Hubris – the excessive pride that occurs just before a major fall. You can see it everywhere, once you open your eyes beyond the mobile phone screen in front of you. Meanwhile, I’ll just go have a listen to this…

May 23, 2021October 9, 2022

The Most Valuable Real Estate in the World?

In the prior post I described how it is expected Singapore has an important role to play as a potential new Switzerland in the New Financial World Order. It makes sense, an important banking centre smack bang in the middle of the power struggle, an oasis of neutrality and peace amidst the turmoil around. When playing the geopolitics game, we don’t really want everything destroyed, do we? It’s also interesting to think that this new banking centre doesn’t need to be as physically big as Switzerland. Thanks to the internet, much of the back office work can be outsourced to other regions, along with the need for clandestine visits by shady characters needing to transfer money who can now just get it sent to an account anywhere in the world within the blink of an eye. Singapore must have a good internet infrastructure. For example, the number of visits to this website by “Huawei clouds, Singapore” have bumped up dramatically this past month.

Certainly, Singapore is already playing up to it’s future role as a global chessboard grand master, with comments like this by their president, expressing concern at the possibility of a military confrontation between China and USA. If such a confrontation occurs, expect the losing side to fight it with one hand tied behind their back, in the style of the latter days of Nazi Germany, where troop concentrations and movements were telegraphed to the Russians by an unknown spy high up within the Reichs Chancellery. Nothing can be left to chance in order to get the correct result, can it?

The real test for Singapore comes soon, when the World Economic Forum comes to town in August 17-20, 2021. I suppose then, we may expect some kind of relative tranquility next few months, before the next stages of the agenda are laid out and taken away in bite-sized chunks by each representative back to their respective countries to digest and implement. As interesting as it might be to be a fly on the wall, who with any compassion could bear to witness the spectacle of a bunch of sociopaths uncaringly carving up the world as if it was a birthday cake, dividing the planned spoils with no regard for the people and places whose lives might be destroyed by their actions?

As always, there are other threats to the global plans. Things can never be 100% certain and when you look closely at that map of Asia, especially the region where Singapore has such an important role, you see a threat.

That narrow Singapore strait where one-third of the world’s shipping must travel through right now to head West to India, the Middle East, Africa and Europe could be under threat from a future development. Yes, if only someone had the foresight to consider building a canal across the part of Thailand that goes south as a narrow peninsular to Malaysia and Singapore. Actually, they already did and what’s more, it’s a bit of contentious situation, as this story laying out the potential for conflict if China did fancy getting involved in such an undertaking implies. That Foreign Policy, a reknowned non-neutral news source comes out with a story like this to stir the embers should also really get you thinking.

It wouldn’t be the first time this area has been important militarily. In 1941, Japan amassed it’s taskforce on the Thai side of the border with Malaya, ready for invasion. The British General even asked London for permission to carry out a pre-emptive strike, knowing the issues they would face defensively, once the task force breached the border and began advancing south through Malaya. Someone in London said no. The rest, including the surrender of 100,000 allied troops in Singapore some weeks later, while the heavy artillery faced uselessly the other way out to the sea, is history.

Of course the on-ground realities are different to how a global map shows it. There are always people living there. People who might be fond of the lives they live and not really be keen on moving. Certainly the building of the Panama canal was no picnic – especially not for the people who died building it and the locals dispossessed by building of it. This area also happens to be quite a large tourist-earning centre for Thailand. If only there was a way to play the long game and encourage the locals to move on, so you could start buying up the land ready for this ambitous long-term project. Hell, engineer the right circumstances and you might even be able to buy the land up quite cheaply compared to it’s true value.

Which got me thinking of Christmas 2004…

There are also some other interesting videos out there showing how it looks now and the abandoned properties. However, the one that really caught my eye is a 1946 experiment to create a Tsunami using a nuclear bomb.

Certainly if that was possible in 1946, the question must be asked, what was possible by 2004? Some people are even asking similar questions about the Fukushima Nuclear reactor incident.

So, taking this into consideration, how’s the Thai tourist industry doing right now? After all, if it’s doing well, there’ll be few sellers, but if things are bad there might be a lot of forced sellers. COVID-19 wasn’t a good tourist season, was it? Well, as of May 2021, if you want to visit you’ll need to quarantine for 14 days, which I can’t imagine does anything to get tourism going again and some locals may well be temped to move or see their assets as liabilities…