The New World Financial Centre

The British Empire and Sir Stanford Raffles in particular were a very shrewd lot. They identified a seemingly irrelevant island with a population of about 150 people as a piece of prime real estate back in 1817. What’s happened since is well-known of course, as the city of Singapore has developed into a major international trade and financial hub, with all the wealth and status that goes alongside that.

This place had always been on my to do list, so when a work trip in 2018 presented me with the opportunity for a one day stopover, I took it with both hands. While I didn’t actually sit down for a Singapore Sling, I did take a wander around the Raffles hotel complex and see the art deco railway station, where bullet damage from the 1941 Japanese invasion was still visible in some of the outer walls, before it probably disappears as the city modernises even further and obliterates the British symbols. The railway itself has already been moved to the North of the island and the future of the station seemed uncertain then, but ghosts were visible everywhere, as I peered through the locked gate into the past, surrounded by modern skyscrapers. I also saw the 1920s post office building, now a hotel, the main square in front of the Town hall where hundreds of thousands were executed by the Japanese and one of the world’s most expensive pieces of undeveloped real estate, The Singapore Cricket Club. I can only wonder how much longer that last piece of Imperial history will last. The battle of Singapore itself in 1941 has always fascinated me. For obvious reasons, it does not feature large in British history when World War 2 is mentioned, but will probably forever be Britain’s biggest military defeat, with a loss of 100,000 military personnel into Japanese captivity and subsequent death, along with the loss of two Battleships – The Prince of Wales and The Repulse.

I’d love to revisit some day on less of an intense schedule, but I sense my days of travel are numbered and I’ve used most of those numbers up. No matter, at least I can say I saw some of the world before all prison doors were locked with a resounding thud.

At the time, I was not ignorant of the island’s position as a major trade route and centre of wealth. Goldmoney and Bullionvault have offered Singapore as a precious metals storage location for years. However, it’s only when you are actually there on the ground, staring up at the impressive skyscrapers that you really understand how the wealth and energy is migrating from the old world to the new.

It’s interesting how stories coincide once more and get you thinking on a particular route. A few weeks ago, I expressed the view that Bitcoin is a distraction, or a preparation for a release of a new monetary system to replace the Petrodollar that has existed since 1971, the year of my birth, the introduction of decimalisation to the UK, the closing of the Gold Convertibility window in the USA and the official founding of the World Economic Forum – more on the last one later. In my view, the coming of digital currencies is inevitable and they may not be nice, with features such as time limitation (spend it or lose it) and extra credits available only to those who follow the rules of society (get the jab or don’t eat meat?). However, for them to be truly accepted, they will need to engineer a collapse of the current system and when that system collapses, every monetary system change ever has had to promise some kind of gold backing to get the public onside.

Historically, the old world still rules the precious metals world, with familiar locations like New York, London and Switzerland being where most of that trade is transacted. As the old world declines further and the new world rises, an Asian powerhouse, one with independence, strong defences, good shipping links and a robust financial system to trade gold and silver is required. There’s no doubt on these metrics that Singapore ticks all the boxes.

What really triggered it was a story mentioning the huge new precious metals facilities being developed in Singapore. It’s not the first time media, including the BBC, have reported on this. Yes, it looks possible a new world currency backed by gold/silver is coming and it will all be stored in Singapore, perhaps with an offshoot for Europe in London. On this, Brexit suddenly makes more sense – a European nation outside EU control, a defendable island where the wealth can be stored as the mainland descends into destruction. The Corporation of London certainly has a pedigree line of survival and growth, regardless of the general situation in the country. You may laugh, but despite a recent short period of comparative peace, Europe has a long, long history of huge wars for resources and after a year of rewarding people for doing nothing, while the continent becomes ever-more dependent on a few producers to carry the mass on their shoulders cracks may appear and Atlas may yet shrug.

When you think about it, it’s interesting how Switzerland always managed to remain neutral during the many European wars of the last few centuries. It becomes clearer why when you are aware of the high levels of banking secrecy Switzerland has historically maintained regarding account holders and fund sources. Consider also how much plundered loot found its way to Switzerland during World War 2. Why, the World Economic Forum itself is even based in Switzerland and Klaus Schwab, it’s apparent founder, was born in Germany in 1938, just before World War 2 began. I’d be interested to learn more on his family history, and this article is something of a primer. Having conducted their meetings in Davos, Switzerland for the entire history of the organisation, they are now holding their first-ever meeting in Singapore in August, 2021.

On closer examination of the Asian map, Singapore is crucial to all trade heading from China, Japan and Korea etc to India then onwards to Europe. Ships can only sail through one narrow strait. The Evergreen in the Suez canal feels like the first visible supply disruption which will expose Europe to how reliant it has become on foreign imports of essentials. Perhaps when those containers do finally arrive, they will be loaded up with precious metals for the return trip as Europe is stripped bare?

Meanwhile, almost everyone in Europe wanders around like idiots, wearing masks and continuing to following “official advice”, not laws on all kinds of things that really are basic human rights, like seeing family and friends, or conducting mutally beneficial transactions with other human beings. Blithely unaware of the probable imminent end of their way of life. You know, that “way of life” that you have been told terrorists hated so much that it needed to be protected, yet was immediately signed away the moment you got told a new virus with a 99.6% survival rate hit?

What do I know really? If I was better at these things I wouldn’t be working in an office following the limitations of my school programming, but on the basis of these jigsaw pieces slotting together, perhaps we should be investing in Singapore. Especially banks if it is going to be the new Switzerland after the World Economic Forum meeting. Not to say there won’t be bumps along the way – one other thing about that map is the seeming inevitability of a conflict between the old world powers and the new. That same Asian map shows how China is totally hemmed in from the sea because the USA controls Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines. If China could punch through and take Taiwan or part of the Phillipines, they could control the Pacific. A war is brewing. I note, for example, that the UK recently sent their aircraft carrier to the China sea. A war in which Singapore will remain an agreed neutral by all parties, just like Switzerland did during the last century, but a war in which the destruction and rewards to the victors may well be huge and end up on this small island nation.

3 – and That’s The Magic Number

On the 3/3 a woman called Sarah, aged 33, was murdered by a man in London. A policeman, as it happens. I don’t claim the credit for spotting that one, but it does lead into some interesting coincidences, especially considering how the story has been used way beyond being a murder case that should be investigated with respect for everyone until…no, innocent until proven guilty and policing with logic instead of emotion seems to have gone by the wayside.

Amongst the media circus for everyone to invest their emotion in, there were even calls from some for a curfew for all men to be home by 18:00. That supposed believers in a free society think it’s okay that one incident like this should ride on the rights and livelihoods of 60 million-plus people is bizarre. However, it fits with the whole Corona regime that we are entering a Minority Report-style world where everyone is believed to be infected unless proven otherwise and now, everyone is believed to be guilty unless proven otherwise. Anyway, didn’t they miss the other big question it raises – who’s going to enforce this curfew if something so extreme was ever allowed to happen? The Police?

If there is anything to really be gained from this story, it’s surely that the police themselves cannot be trusted. I fear however, that even this will be used against humanity. All it needs is someone to say humans can’t be trusted to police each other…if only there was some way a computer, with it’s impeccable logic and lack of prejudice could do the job. Maybe a robocop or robodog? Let’s just forget for a moment that computer software is always programmed by humans, with huge margin for error. Robocop from the 1980s was rather prescient in seeing how it could go.

Meanwhile, journalism seems keen to focus on the alleged perpetrator still receiving his salary while suspended from his job. Even helpfully repeating across the globe how he will still receive his at least £33,000 salary. Here, here and here. What a bizarre figure to concentrate on. Unless…..dipping into the world of freemasonry, Google tells me there are 33,000 lodges worldwide, with 33,000 members in many lodges. Continuing the search theme, other newsworthy stories further feed the conspiratorial fires. It’s amazing how many COVID-19 injections seem to be delivered in batches of 33,000. Utah, for example, a home of alternative religion and mystic rites certainly seems keen on the magic number. Gibraltar just completed it’s injection programme too, although this media source doesn’t seem to be in on the numerical importance. Then we have the shooting in Georgia, also successfully being used to whip up racial and gender division where there previously was none, with this story helpfully telling us that the alleged perpetrator came from Woodstock, Cherokee county with a population of…33,000.

Why am I bringing all of this up, do you ask? Returning to the world of finance, let’s finish with the biggest 33,000 financial sign going. Amongst all these 3’s the world’s biggest stock market, the DOW Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time high last week. I don’t need to tell you what it was before you visit the link, do I? The Federal Reserve even helped out, the story tells us, with soothing words and promises of further stimuli to keep the party going, despite the reality of every economic indicator. I find myself wondering if words and actions may diverge soon. At least for a little while until other parts of the agenda are enacted.

I shall leave the final words to De La Soul, with their 90’s hit, although apparently that was a cover of Schoolhouse Rock / Bob Durrough in 1973. Meanwhile, we can all ponder what the 33,000 signifies to those in the know, along with asking the how and why of Wayne Couzens’ black left eye.

Bitbubble

Last night was one of those nights where you wake up and things occur to you. I’ve had quite a few of those lately, but this one seemed especially illuminating. For a while now, we’ve had the word bubble planted in front of us by the media for quite a while to convince us stock markets, bond markets, commodity markets and biggest of all, cryptocurrencies are too high and may be about to crash.

Using reverse psychology, you should wonder if there really is a bubble. After all, a real bubble happens when everyone is too carried away by the emotion and success to recognise the bubble for what it is. In fact, bubbles don’t normally get identified until long after they pop. In hindsight, a graph usually makes it clear and everyone who once yelled loudly about their success now remains quiet and tries to forget the whole sorry episode.

Perhaps the one where you could say the graph seems to show a bubble, is Bitcoin. While I regret not being in on the Bitcoin boom, I’m still not convinced and find myself on the side of Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers, versus such other illuminaries as Doug Casey and Robert Kiyosaki. Yes, billions are being made and yes, we can agree fiat currencies are in massive decline. However, to me, the best medium to avoid that is the precious metals, with thousands of years of history to prove it, not electronic bits on a screen with no intrinsic value. Of course, the blockchain technology, decentralisation and ability to pay without banks are excellent, but it all runs on establishment hardware. Beginning with your smartphone, then the networks that pass your data across the world. As the establishment gets better at tracking, they will undoubtedly find ways to switch you off if they want to. There are certainly some fascinating debates out there to watch on the subject between these knowledgeable and successful people. Meanwhile, stories like this, about a German who won’t give the police his password and would rather sit in prison, remain amusing and stick two fingers up to the powers that be.

I am certainly an interested observer. Even the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto, who supposed started up Bitcoin is an enigma. For some reason, his name reminds me of the government department, the NSA (National Security Agency) and it’s always seemed strange that organisations with a global reach and unlimited funds are unable to track down the person who started it all. As an adult, you know that sometimes the best way to keep a child or dog occupied is to throw them a ball and part of me has wondered lately if that’s exactly what’s happened here. Throwing a ball to keep people busy and distract them from the best investments, while you clean up on the cheap.

Take, for example, the recent purchase by Tesla of $1.5 Billion worth of Bitcoin. Why would they do that, you might wonder? Whatever reasons are given, I find myself doubting they are the full truth. Then, we hear that Apple may also buy Bitcoin. Both stories helpfully plugged on mainstream media, to ensure maximum public reach.

So why are they buying?

Last night was my own Eureka moment. On a yearly basis, there isn’t enough silver mined to meet demand. Only about 80%, with the rest met by recycling. Fair enough, excellent reuse, but for how long will there be enough scrap silver to go around, and, if a sniff of inflation came around, how many of those recyclers would be willing to sell their metal at the current prices? It led me to get thinking about the products of Tesla and Apple, and the amount of silver they consume yearly. In the case of Tesla, one electric car consumes 1 kilogram of silver. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but if they make one million cars a year, then they will consume 5% of world silver demand. To put that in perspective, Ford alone produced 4 million cars last year. When it comes to Apple, I am grateful to this excellent infographic for explaining it all very clearly, albeit it from 2013. I can only guess that bigger iphones means even more metal in there.

Here’s my view – the public has been thrown a ball to play with. Indeed, it may continue to shoot up and entertain us all, the same way the Dutch went wild for Tulip bulbs in Amsterdam in the 1600s, and for a while, we may all feel ourselves rich or stupid for not participating. Indeed, some will walk away with fortunes. The majority probably won’t, however.

Meanwhile, the elite can stock up on the proven store of value and have a good laugh as many lose everything and are forced to succumb to The Great Reset.

Silver Squeeze

A lot has been made of recent events involving a US company, Gamestop and how their meteoric share price rise was a battle between David and Goliath, Goliath in this case being big hedge funds who short sold Gamestop in the expectation of large profits on the share price continuing to fall. David on the other hand, an army of small investors / speculators, buying Gamestop to stop the price falling and force the short sellers to buy stock at ever-increasing prices.

I don’t agree.

For sure, the way the share price yo-yoed around will mean a lot of people will have made a lot of money, just as another lot of people will have lost a lot of money and a lot more people will be somewhere in-between, with small losses and small profits. Who those people are, I don’t claim to know.

Initially, I was sucked in by the story too, until I took a step back to think about why it was getting so much publicity and being presented like this in the first place. as someone once said, “the revolution won’t be televised” and so it is here. If the small investor really was getting one over on the big guys, we probably wouldn’t even get to hear about it and rules would be quietly changed to stop it happening again.

Apparently WallStreetBets, the Reddit group supposedly behind all this, has several million members and it’d be hard not to believe at least some of those made a lot of money pumping and dumping a business whose days are probably numbered, physical shop locations in dying malls and city centres, selling games in boxes at a time that it’s all migrating to online, even the downloading of the products themselves.

What has this all got to do with Silver anyway?

Well, some posters claimed Silver was going to be the next target, with an attempt to attack JP Morgan, who short silver way in excess of the physical silver market, to suppress the price. Again, I have no doubt machinations take place to make the price whatever it needs to be at a given time, but I wouldn’t recommend that you try to actively participate on this base and furthermore, I wouldn’t recommend that you imagine yourself to be one of Robin Hood’s merry men, ambushing the bad guys and taking the loot to redistribute to your favoured needy causes. The game is often rigged, probably more so than any of us realises, but just occasionally, the riggers get found out. I just don’t believe this is one of those times. Admittedly, JP Morgan did have to pay a large settlement for active involvement in the silver market, but whether anyone has the resources to take the big boys on is another question.

Meanwhile, I can’t help but feel that this story will be used to bring in some laws, under the guise of investor protections. Perhaps that was the real intention of it all along.

If you invest in silver or gold, it’s a long term story, where some day people will realise prices of essential goods and services are rising dramatically in their local fiat currency and begin to wonder why. We aren’t there yet, but if precious metals start to rise priced in that same fiat currency, I believe that will be the major reason, that the game is up and it’s every man and woman for themselves. Much likelier than feeling yourself aligned to an online group of renegades who you’ve never met and who you don’t know the true motives for wanting you to get involved and spend your money on their cause, isn’t it?

Tyrian Purple

At the very beginning of Gold, Silver and Freedom, there’s a whole chapter related to the similarities between now and the Roman Empire. No better example could exist than the presidential inauguration of 2021, Hail Caesar! As president Joseph Biden steps forth to receive his crown of thorns and lead the United States of America into a new era.

A closer look at the imperial crowning would’ve revealed greater symbology however. Looking behind the architecture of the doric columns we should be in no doubt who the real leader was at that inauguration. Hidden in plain sight, those in the know would have recognised the symbol instantly. Kamala Harris, decked out in Purple, the true colour of the ancient elite.

Therefore, we shouldn’t be surprised about what happens next. In fact, Biden himself has hinted at it several times. He’ll step down due to ill health, or worse and hand over to his deputy. Then, a woman so disliked that she could only get a few percent of Democratic party support in her own bid to become presidential candidate, will have the pathway to become president of the most militarily powerful nation in the world.

As a child, I collected stamps and the Victorian / Edwardian Britsh Empire ones were of special appeal. This was when I first encountered the colour Tyrian Purple, without even realising it’s ancient origins and symbolism. A cursory look online reveals the array of imperial stamps issued in that colour, signifying power to the subconcious of the imperial subjects, even if they don’t realise it as they write their letters. Well, why was the 2d Tyrian purple even priced in d, the lowest British currency denomination is pence? Again, denarius, the ancient silver coin of the Roman Empire. It’s all there when you look closely enough. I don’t claim to even scratch the surface of what else is hidden in plain sight.

To further prepare us for this, the BBC posted this story the other day, about how the royal dye has been discovered by Israeli archaeologists. Are you really telling me they had never, ever found a fragment before? A part of me even expects a follow-up story in a few months, where they find the royal dye is the exact same hue as that worn by Kamala herself during the inauguration. A further sign to those in the know who their new leader is, perhaps? Specualtion aside, the other interesting aspect of this story was how they never once referred to it by it’s true name. Tyrian Purple. Why?

I fear this new imperial reign will not end well. Not because I support any political party, but rather because I don’t and circumventing democracy itself is another theme explored in the chapter From Democracy to Corporatocracy. What could circumvent it more than sneaking in a candidate who would never have been voted in by the electorate? Worse, and once again we end with a question, the main one of all, why?

UK Government Borrowing in the Time of Corona

The BBC lays the amount of new money created in the UK, during the Corona crisis. To spell it out :-

“Since the beginning of the financial year in April, government borrowing has reached £214.9bn, £169.1bn more than a year ago.

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has estimated it could reach £372.2bn by the end of the financial year in March.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55013192

The natural consequences of this? Inflation, even if it takes a few years for the currency to begin circulating, or the death of the pound? Take your choice.

Stock Markets and Gold

Now for more news, your stock market investments may be worth under one-third of their value in 2000.  Gasp.  Yes, the gain of the last 20 years has been illusory.  For sure, some countries and some market sectors have done better than others, but for the USA main index, this is exactly what has happened.

(Chart: DJIA priced in ounces of gold)

Even if large corporations prosper, the US DJIA stock index and gold have a history of a near meeting when a financial crisis bottoms out. Currently, the DJIA is worth around 14 times the price of an ounce of gold. In 1932 and 1980, just over one ounce of gold bought the DJIA. Whether a large stock market crash achieves that, as was the case in 1932, or inflation pushing up the gold price, as was the case in 1980, it may be destined to happen again.

Oil and Gold

Oil is still one of the biggest building blocks of life.  Regardless of whether you now work from home instead of driving to work every day in the gas-guzzler or not.  It’s used in everything – fuels, plastics and pharmaceuticals, to name a few.  In fact, if you now work from home, chances are you’re turning up the winter thermostats a bit more often than you would at work.  You’re probably also buying a lot more food from the supermarket, most of it encased in plastic packaging.  Even if your heating system is not oil-based, oil remains one of the main fuels available for generation of electricity, and could well do so for many, many years, regardless of how many windmills they build.

So, the good news.  You’ll be pleased to hear is that oil is at an all-time low, when measured against gold.  Luckily enough, since with your earnings being one-sixth of the 1970 value, you may not be able to afford to keep the house warm or drive a car otherwise.  Any apparent price rises you see at the pumps are merely an inflation of your fiat currency.

Now for the bad news, can it continue?

Maybe not.  For many years, gold and Oil actually maintained a near 10:1 ratio relationship.

(Chart: Gold/Oil ratio 2010 to 2020)

As the chart shows, this relationship has become distended as a result of the Corona crisis. There’s now a near 50:1 relationship as of August 2020. This may imply oil is actually quite cheap, gold is expensive, or that the ratio no longer holds. There has been a multitude of media articles heralding the death of oil.  However, it seems to have missed the attention of many that all of this data – everyone’s Facebook posts, Instagram images, or cloud software solution is stored on a server somewhere that requires electrical power to run. For sure, in the case of one Instagram post, that electrical consumption is miniscule, but multiply it across a world of 7 billion people, and you get an idea now of the immense electrical power required. Oil, natural gas, and coal are still heavily used in electrical power generation across the globe.

(Chart: Actual and predicted power sources to 2030)

The eagle-eyed among you may have spotted the chart dates from 2003. This was deliberate since more recent data shows it to be correct. If so, the future trend for oil consumption is still upward.

(Chart: Energy consumption to 2040)

So, and this is only a question, not investment advice, maybe oil itself is not finished yet as an investment.  If not, could it revert back to the 10:1 ratio with gold and if so, at what price for both?

Housing and Gold

Now for some big news.  If you live in the UK, your house topped in value in 2005 and has been falling ever since.  In fact, it’s now about one-quarter of what it was worth then.  What?  I hear you say.  Okay, yes, in fiat currency units it has gone up, but measured in gold, it has fallen dramatically.

Measured this way, house prices are very close to the 1950 mean.  However, with the Corona crisis still in full swing, employment uncertainty for many and wages still at one-sixth of their 1970 value, it’s entirely possible the market could still have a lot further to fall.  Conversely, if something happens to get wages closer to the mean or inflation rises, well, they could easily move upwards in fiat currency terms especially.

In this case, the housing market is hard to exit, unless you prefer the uncertainty of renting.  Everyone needs to live somewhere.

Textiles and Gold

Clothes are really cheap right now, as retailers dump tons of unsold stock from the 2020 fashion ranges onto the market at bargain prices. If you already have enough clothes, fine, but if not, it might be a good time to ensure you do, especially clothes to see you through cold winters. With this glut, it’s hard to know what will happen to all elements of the clothing supply chain in the future: Cotton farmers, Garment manufacturers, and clothing retailers.

The low price of cotton has already made it hard for growers in countries like India to turn a profit and it’s hard to know how they are coping with this huge change in market conditions.  There’s been talk of suicides in the media.  With cotton at an all-time low, we can assume that prospects are not great for some cotton farmers.