Gold’s behaviour over time is best understood in phases rather than prices.
Its role is not to move continuously, but to respond when monetary conditions reach points of stress, distortion, or contradiction.
Early 2000s — Disinterest
Gold is widely regarded as obsolete.
Central banks are seen as credible.
Debt expansion is tolerated as manageable.
Gold ownership is unfashionable and largely dismissed.
2005–2007 — Quiet Accumulation
Gold begins to rise steadily against major currencies.
The move attracts little attention.
This phase is characterised by indifference rather than opposition.
2008–2009 — Validation Without Resolution
The financial crisis exposes systemic fragility.
Gold responds sharply as confidence is shaken.
Extraordinary monetary measures are introduced, described as temporary and reversible.
Gold’s move is treated as a reaction to crisis, not a signal of structural change.
2011 — Nominal High, Narrative Closure
Gold reaches new highs.
The prevailing belief is that the system has been stabilised.
The metal is widely declared to have “done its job”.
This marks the beginning of a long period of neglect.
2012–2019 — Suppression and Stagnation
Monetary distortion becomes normalised.
Low interest rates persist.
Balance sheets expand.
Asset inflation concentrates elsewhere.
Gold drifts, trades sideways, and loses attention.
Ownership requires patience rather than conviction.
2020 — Regime Change
Monetary and fiscal responses are deployed at scale.
Temporary language fades.
Gold responds decisively, re-establishing itself at higher nominal levels.
This move is structural rather than emotional.
2021–2024 — Adjustment Phase
Gold holds elevated ground but remains volatile.
Attention shifts between inflation, rates, and policy credibility.
Gold is neither embraced nor dismissed — it is tolerated.
2025–2026 — Repricing
Gold reaches new nominal highs across multiple currencies.
Moves are gradual rather than explosive.
This phase reflects cumulative pressure rather than fear.
Observation
Gold rarely moves when it is expected to.
It rarely rewards enthusiasm.
It functions best when it is ignored.
This page exists to anchor that behaviour historically — not to assign meaning to the next move.